Some science behind the art of bluffing

By David McClary

The fairness of the poker is one of its attractions. Since the rules are rooted in mathematics, on the surface at least, all players have the same chance of winning over the long-term. Letıs examine this idea a bit further. Ten imaginary players sit down at a table with the same amount of money. For this example each player will have all of there cards dealt face up. If none of the money was removed, for the rake or dealer tips, then the game should go on forever. This is because the each player has the same probability of getting the best hand. Over time, each person will have the same number of full houses. If they played long enough each person would have the privilege beating someone elseıs four of a kind with a strait flush and so forth. So how do you avoid this inevitable stalemate? Simple, you bluff.

My made-up example screams of one difference from real poker. With the cards dealt face up, no one can represent a hand they donıt have. However, once some of the cards are hidden, a real game takes shape.

The most important part of a successful bluff is simple; you canıt bluff the whole table. I have often heard that it is impossible to bluff in limit, or more appropriately low-limit, games. People assume that the bets are so small that somebody will always call. This is not altogether wrong but it misses the real problem. In low limit games you may have seven or eight players seeing the flop. This means that you may need to bluff all of these players to win. At least one of them is bound to catch some card that makes the pot worth contesting. If instead you are in a hand against one or two opponents than the chances of a successful bluff go way up. Your cards may still be lousy yet you now have a much smaller chance that your opponentıs arenıt also.

We should next consider your table image. If you are seen as a player that often shows down winning cards then you have a fighting chance. It also helps if you have represented strength by raising pre-flop. If you have shown strength and a ³scare² card falls you could be positioned to bluff out an opponent that shows weakness. Keep in mind that a bluff is not a play when your cards are too weak to win but more a play that opponent thinks is too strong to call.

A major piece of the bluffing puzzle is confidence. If you act like you would with a good hand then your opponent may think have one. This is not limited to having good cards. A good player can display a great deal of confidence by recognizing a great opportunity to bluff. If you can remind yourself that you are making a ³smart² play when an opponent shows weakness, you can often forget how poor your hand is.

One activity that has become more common with televised poker is players showing hands that are not called. I see this in lower limit games far too often. If your opponent folds then they didnıt call the last bet you made. If youıre playing $4-8 Holdem and your opponent folds on the river than he saved an $8 wager. If he really wanted to see your cards than he should put up that last $8. By showing your cards after they fold you are basically giving him $8. If this doesnıt seem like a big deal then think of it this way; showing the cards for free is essentially the same as not showing the player your cards and giving that players $8 from your stack. That is obviously silly. The transaction however has the same net effect.

To be fair, I am not saying never show cards. I have done it myself. If the player from our example chooses to show cards, he can only justify doing so it the expected gain is more then $8. This is why you see cards shown in tournament play. Large tournaments have players constantly moving around and changing tables. You may need to show a bluff or a legitimate cards to trap a player within a few hands. This is seldom the case in a cash game. You can expect to sit with mostly the same players for many hours a night. Since there is no time pressure, set them up for the long term. This way they can lose to you over and over again.

In the end, sometimes you get called. When this happens simply turn over your cards. Some players may question you. Some of the lousy one may even ridicule you. Donıt worry. Just think of those bets you made as an investment. Even if only one player calls all nine opponents get to see your 4-9 offsuit lose to a queen high flush. You can bet they wonıt soon forget it the next time they are in a hand with you.

Through all of this you need to remember that there is no formula for bluffing. It is an art as the title suggests; but it is an art that all players can get better at. If you bluff with a purpose and choose spots where you have a good chance of success, bluffing can be your most profitable weapon at the table.