While every game of a team’s 16-game NFL schedule is important, it’s possible that a fair indication of any team’s success hinges on those games played in September.

This year, the Bills have four games scheduled in September, and history proves that a winning record in the season’s first month may not guarantee a postseason date, but certainly enhances the chances.

Since 1992, of the 120 teams that qualified for the playoffs, 105 (or 87.5 percent) had .500 or better records at September 30. Just 15 qualified despite being under .500 in September, and just two made the Super Bowl: the 1993 Dallas Cowboys (who were 1-2 in September but defeated Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVIII) and the 2001 New England Patriots (also 1-2 in September, but winners against St. Louis last January).

On the other hand, there have been 45 teams who missed the playoffs despite having a winning record at September 30. As stated before, there’s no guarantee.

One team last year that came flying out of the gate was the San Diego Chargers. They started 3-0, but star linebacker Junior Seau was quick to remind people, "We’re not going to be kids and holler that we’re number one."

Good thing, since the Chargers went into a serious funk and ended the season with a 5-11 record. The other two teams who were undefeated in September - Green Bay and St. Louis - got a chance to play past the first week of January.

San Diego and New England are two teams who have defied the trends of the past 10 years. The Chargers started the 1992 season 0-4 before winning the AFC West with an 11-5 mark. No other club since then has made the playoffs after a winless September. The Patriots have been in the playoffs five times since 1992, but in only two of those years did they have winning records in September.

That may help explain Drew Bledsoe’s career record of 14-17 in September, but there’s a streaky side note to that record. As a rookie in 1993, he went 0-4 in his first month. He then compiled a September mark of 14-7 between 1994 and 1999. He then was 0-4 in September 2000, and started last season with two losses before being suffering a chest injury.

En route to his career 63-60 record, he has posted losing records in September (14-17) and October (14-16), while boasting winning marks in November (16-15) and December (19-12).

He has also spread his 26 games with 300 passing yards well, having seven each in September, October, and December/January, with an additional five in November.

But let’s get back to September.

There is a correlation between playing well in September and making the playoffs. Just look at the teams who have made the playoffs most frequently over the last 10 years: Miami, Minnesota and San Francisco each reached the post-season eight times. Their September records rank among the top four in the league: the Dolphins have the best record at 26-7 (.788), the Vikings are third at 26-12 (.684) and the 49ers rank fourth at 25-12 (.676). The second-best September team, Kansas City, is 27-12 (.692) and has qualified for the post-season tournament five times.

Only three teams with five playoff appearances since 1992 posted a sub-.500 record in September over the last 10 years: Detroit (19-20, .487), Philadelphia (17-19, 472) and the Patriots (15-20, .429).

Incidentally, Buffalo is 20-14 in September games, the eighth-best record in the league, with six playoff appearances. In those six playoff years, the worst record Buffalo sported in September was 0-3 in 1998 (the fabled first Johnson/Flutie year). Otherwise, Buffalo’s September records during playoff seasons: 4-0 in 1992, 2-1 in 1993, 2-1 in 1995, 3-1 in 1996, and 2-1 in 1999. Even in non-playoff years, Buffalo has generally posted decent September records: 3-1 in 1994, 2-2 in 1997, 2-1 in 2000 and 0-3 last year.

It should be interesting to see what effect September will have this year.