Add up the plusses to determine the best player in NHL history

(Hint: In Boston they call him Bobby Awe)

By George Kuhn

Who is the greatest hockey player ever?

The subject has long been debated among hockey historians. In1998, the Hockey News in 1998 presented the then definitive list of the 50 greatest players. In a vote by a panel of hockey experts, Wayne Gretzky finished first narrowly edging second place Bobby Orr with a margin of victory of only 00.005 percent.

Generally the subject has been debated over four major candidates, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Mario Lemieux, and Gordie Howe. A compelling argument can be presented for each player and is generally based on statistical achievements. Gretzky holds all career and single season and playoff, goal, assist and point scoring marks. Orr was the only defenseman to lead the NHL in scoring, and did so twice in his brief career. Lemieux has achieved single season scoring marks second only to Gretzky. Howe played in the NHL for 26 years, won five scoring titles and finished among the top 10 scorers 19 times, and held all the career scoring records until Gretzky topped them.

Statistics alone however do not measure the significance of these players. Each one of them left their own unique legacy. Bobby Orr changed the way the game was played with an unprecedented array of puck handling, skating ability, creativity and risk taking. Gretzky elevated the game to an elegance as previously shown by Jean Beliveau, but with a statistical dominance so incredible it seems unimaginable today. Gordie Howe became known as Mr. Hockey due to his 26 years of competition and excellence in the NHL. Lemieux, whom Bobby Orr called the most talented player ever, combined the skill of Beliveau with the size of a behemoth to create an almost unstoppable force.

Measures of greatness

Career goals, assists, and points give a numerical measure of offensive greatness. But hockey is not only about offense, there is a defensive component to the game as well. Evaluating a player’s defensive prowess can be of subjective judgment. There is no statistic that reveals effective defensive play the way goal scoring measures offensive productivity. However, there is a measure that reveals the balance between a player’s offensive and defensive contributions, the plus-minus. A player on the ice is awarded a plus for each goal his team scores, and a minus for each goal scored against them. Only even strength goals are considered. Power play and shorthanded goals do not count. Plus-minus statistics gauge a player’s true value by balancing that player’s offensive contribution against their defensive competence as measured by their cumulative plus-minus total.

Plus-minus may seem to be arbitrary when a player contributes nothing to a teammate scoring a goal but receives a plus because they happened to be on the ice at the time the goal was scored. Or on the occasion where a goaltender allows a soft goal and his teammates suffer a minus despite effectively executing their defensive assignments. But plus-minus is a meaningful statistic over the course of a season or over several seasons. Players cannot hide from their plus-minus.

Plus-minus statistics have been tabulated for all NHL seasons since 1967-68 and are the most meaningful measure of a player’s two-way play. While point totals can be impressive, plus-minus numbers provide a sobering evaluation of a player’s value.

Consider the case of Garry Unger, one of the superb scorers in the NHL during the 1970s. Unger scored over 30 goals per season for eight straight years for St. Louis while accumulating a–109 over that period. Unger was clearly a liability to his team. Maybe the Blues kept him on the payroll because of his power play contributions or because Unger’s long blond hair caused hordes of female fans to storm the ticket office. Or look at Mike Bullard who scored 182 goals for Pittsburgh between 1981-82 and 1985-86. Bullard was a cumulative –113 over those four seasons. The Penguins were in trouble when Bullard was on the ice, even though he averaged 45.5 goals per season for them.

Jacques Richard scored 52 goals and 51 assists for 103 points in 1979-80 while playing for Quebec, but compiled a –9. Compare that with Richard’s former Buffalo teammate Craig Ramsay, who in 1979-80 scored 24 goals and 35 assists for a comparatively modest 59 points while accumulating a +39. If scoring totals are the only measure of competence, then clearly Richard must be a superior player to Ramsay. But you now know differently, you know that Ramsay’s +39 reveals that he was a much more effective player than Richard while scoring far fewer goals. Perhaps that’s why Ramsay played 1070 NHL games as compared to Richard’s 588, and why Ramsay has been in the NHL since 1971 as a player, coach, scout, and assistant general manager.

The Study

This study uses the compiled career plus minus statistics for all NHL players in order to determine the best player in NHL history. In theory, the advantage of studying plus-minus is that the greatest scorers with the strongest two-way defensive work ethic will compile the best plus-minus records. These would truly be the games most dominant players. This study should also reveal some surprises, the outstanding two-way players whose defensive acumen has produced exceptional plus-minus numbers by minimizing the goals scored against them.

The Plus and the Minus of Plus-Minus

It is important not to be blinded by plus-minus numbers, the statistic is seen by some as being flawed. Most players on poor teams will have poor plus-minus figures. Most players on the best teams will have good plus-minus totals. So any listing of the top plus-minus records will include mostly players from the top teams. Average players from a championship club often have superior plus-minus numbers than superior players on mediocre or poor teams. Some ordinary players will have outstanding plus-minus records if they benefited from playing regularly with great players.

Another shortcoming is the unavailability of plus-minus records prior to 1967. This means we are unable to evaluate many of the greatest players in NHL history including the players from some of the NHL Detroit’s 1950s dynasty Canadiens 1950s and the Leafs 1960s Stanley Cup dynasties. This includes great players like Maurice Richard, Doug Harvey, Jean Beliveau, Tim Horton, Dave Keon and Frank Mahovlich, among many others.

Plus-minus also ignores power play goals, which may account for as much as a third of a player’s career scoring totals. Despite these shortcomings, this study has the potential to uncover evidence of outstanding accomplishments by modest scorers who may have been overlooked, and to support the reputation of some of the top scorers in NHL history.

Winning is the ultimate goal of any team. Players from winning teams have demonstrated a high level of proficiency toward that end. While career plus-minus statistics will be skewed towards players from the most successful teams, winning teams are generally successful because they employ the best players. Most teammates will usually have similar plus-minus totals over an 80 game season, but the players whose plus minus numbers are significantly ahead of their teammates would be recognized as outstanding two-way players, the best of the best. Thus, ranking the best plus-minus records from the best teams will inevitably involve the best players.

Cumulative Career Plus-Minus Numbers

Career plus-minus totals were compiled from individual single season numbers. I have compiled two primary figures for comparison. First is a player’s career plus minus total. This is simply each individual player’s single season plus-minus total added together to create their career totals.

Career Plus Minus (GP = games played)

Player	GP	Plus
Larry Robinson, Mtl, LA	1394	730
Bobby Orr, Bos, Chi	596	596
Wayne Gretzky	1487	1487
Bobby Clarke, Phi	1144	506
Ray Bourque, Bos-Col	1532	503
Serge Savard, Mtl-Wpg	1038	460
Guy Lafleur, MtL-Nyr-Que	1126	453
Bryan Trottier, NyI-Pit	1279	452
Brad Mcrimmon, Bos-Phi	1222	444
Denis Potvin, NyI	1080	441
Mark Howe, Har-Phi-Det	929	400
Steve Shutt, Mtl-LA	930	393
Mike Bossy, NYI	752	381
Brad Park, Nyr-Bos-Det	1113	358
Dallas Smith, Bos, Nyr	773	355
Jacques Lemaire, Mtl	853	349
Guy Lapointe, Mtl-Bos	884	329
Craig Ramsay, Buf	1222	328
Bill Hajt, Buf	854	321
Scott Stevens, Was-Stl-NJ	1353	317
Bill Barber, Phi	903	316
Brian Propp, Phi-Min-Bos	1016	310
Jean Ratelle, NYR-Bos	1281	299
Jimmy Watson, Phi	613	296
Jari Kurri, Edm La-Nyr-Col-Ana	1251	282
Wayne Cashman, Bos	1027	281
Rod Langway, Mtl-Was	994	277
Charlie Huddy, Edm, La, Buf, StL	1017	251
Peter Mahovlich, Det, Mtl, Pit	884	244
Ken Hodge, Bos, NYR	881	241

Topping the career plus-minus list is Larry Robinson, with a stunning plus 730 in 1394 games. Robinson is 133 plusses ahead of 2nd place Bobby Orr whose plus 597 was accrued in only 596 games. Robinson’s numbers appear unbeatable. In today’s game, one would need to play twenty years and lead the NHL in plus-minus every year to even hope to catch him. That scenario is unlikely. Wayne Gretzky compiled the third best career totals at plus 518 in 1487 games. This top thirty list is filled with twenty-four Stanley Cup winners. The remaining six were Cup finalists. Clearly, only players from winning teams need apply for membership in this club.

It is noteworthy to see the presence of long time Sabres players Craig Ramsay and Bill Hajt among the career leaders. This is a tribute to these two defensive players who played the game with an intelligence and discipline that allowed them to outperform the most talented players in the game whom they competed against directly during their careers.

Plus Minus Average Per Season

This is where the rubber meets the road, where we create a standard unit of measure for career plus-minus. Playing careers are variable in length. By creating a common frame of reference we can compare each player’s level of plus-minus performance. To accomplish this, I have calculated an eighty game average plus-minus for each player based on their career totals. Only players with a minimum of 500 games played are considered. Calculating a player’s plus-minus average per season involves a two step process: first, dividing the career plus-minus by their career total of games played to determine a plus-minus average per game. Second, multiplying that per game average by 80 games to give a single season plus-minus average.

For example; 1,000 games played with a cumulative career +250.

Step 1: Divide +250/1,000 games played = average +0.25 per game

Step 2: Multiply 0.25 X 80 games = +20 average per 80 games

80 game plus-minus average

(Note: The late Bill Nyrop would have finished in second place with a +51.4 but he played only 207 games in the NHL, too few to be included in this study. Nonetheless, his plus-minus record is remarkable)

Bobby Orr’s average plus-minus per season is 80.1. This means that on average, Orr was one goal better than his opposition in any game while playing at even strength. Consider that Orr was also on the ice for 545 power-play goals in 596 games. Orr’s per season average is a whopping 81percent higher than the second best player, Montreal’s Jacques Laperriere, the outstanding defensive defenseman who was a mainstay on Montreal’s Stanley Cup teams in the 1960s and early 1970s. Consider that only six players in NHL history (other than Orr himself) have compiled a single season plus figure higher than Orr’s average number. (See table 3) Orr’s margin of victory is so overwhelming that we should consider another frame of reference to gain a perspective. Consider that if a racecar driver won the Indianapolis 500 by 81%, he would complete the 500th lap while the second place driver was on lap 276! When it comes to plus-minus, Bobby Orr is clearly in a league of his own.

Orr vs. Gretzky

The question of "best player" appears to be well settled by the plus-minus equation. Bobby Orr is in first place with a plus 80.1 while Wayne Gretzky ranks 17th with a plus 28.2. While Gretzky certainly is not the 17th best player in NHL history, Orr is clearly the superior player, right? Let’s examine this question more thoroughly.

Bobby Orr’s career was ended much too soon by knee injuries after only 596 games played between 1966 and 1979. Fairness requires me to point out that while Orr’s retirement deprived us of additional maestro like performances on ice, his career stats do not include those seasons on the down side of an athletes career. The inescapable truism in athletics is that the performance levels of most athletes’ will peak at around age 29 and then begin a slow but inevitable decline.

So the average plus-minus equation presented in this study might suffer an unintentional bias in favor of Bobby Orr because he didn’t experience the declining performances typical in the post 30 years where he would probably produce modest numbers while playing for a mediocre team. This happened to Phil Esposito, Gil Perreault, Marcel Dionne, Guy Lafluer, Wayne Gretzky and most star players. Only Syl Apps Sr. of the Toronto Maple Leafs left the NHL while still near the top of his game. Apps retired in 1948 after recording the highest goal and point totals of his career. Of course if Apps could have earned millions of dollars per season maybe he would have tried to play forever, like Mark Messier.

I am going to attempt to level the playing field so that the Gretzky vs. Orr question can be settled. I will subtract Gretzky’s plus minus numbers from his declining years and then recalculate his plus minus average so that I can compare his best years against Orr’s best. The challenge is determining when Gretzky’s decline begins.

Gretzky won his last scoring title in 1993-94 with 130 points. He scored 48 points in 48 games during the strike shortened 1994-95 season, followed by 102 points in 1995-96, 97 points in 1996-97 when he finished 5th overall in points, and 95 points in 1997-98 for a 4th overall finish. Gretzky was chosen for the second all star team in 1994, 1997 and 1998. Considering the drop from his 1994 scoring title to a mere mortal’s point-per-game rate in 1995, I consider that to be the crucial indicator that his career is on its downside. Even though multiple top-ten finishes and all-star berths were yet to come for Gretzky, many mere mortals have achieved those feats. For Wayne Gretzky, this represents a descent from being the Great One to being a good one. I will recalculate Gretzky’s 80 game plus minus average after eliminating the numbers from 1994-95 until his retirement in 1999.

Between his 1st NHL season in 1979-80 and 1993-94, Gretzky played 1245 games with a cumulative +573. This amounts to a single-season average of +36.8, still inferior to Orr’s 80.1 which is 2.18 times higher than Gretzky’s new number. But why not consider only Gretzky’s greatest years? Orr spent 10 seasons with Boston, so let’s consider only Gretzky’s first 10 NHL seasons. Between 1979-80 and 1998-99, Gretzky played 774 games never scored fewer than 149 points and compiled a cumulative +566, which converts to an impressive per season average of +58.5. But this is still inferior to Orr’s 80.1 plus-minus average, which is 37 percent higher than Gretzky’s adjusted figures. In spite of these attempts to manipulate the numbers and overcome a statistical bias in Orr’s favor, it is still clear that Bobby Orr is the best plus minus player in NHL history.

The Best Plus-Minus Seasons of All Time

Top 30 all time single season plus-minus totals

Player	Plus	Season
Bobby Orr, Bos	124	1970-71
Larry Robinson, Mtl	120	1976-77
Wayne Gretzky, Edm	98	1984-85
Dallas Smith, Bos	94	1970-71
Guy Lafleur, Mtl	89	1976-77
Bobby Orr, Bos	86	1971-72
Mark Howe, Phi	85	1985-86
Bobby Orr, Bos	84	1973-74
Bobby Clarke, Phi	83	1974-75
Brad McCrimmon, Phi	83	1985-86
Wayne Gretzky, Edm	81	1981-82
Bobby Orr, Bos	80	1974-75
Serge Savard, Mtl	79	1976-77
Bobby Clarke, Phi	79	1975-76
Jacques Laperriere, Mtl	78	1972-73
Brian Engblom, Mtl	78	1981-82
Bryan Trottier, NyI	76	1978-79
Bill Barber, Phi	74	1975-76
Steve Shutt, Mtl	73	1975-76
Reggie Leach, Phi	73	1975-76
Phil Esposito, Bos	71	1970-71
Ken Hodge, Bos	71	1975-76
Peter Mahovlich, Mtl	71	1975-76
Jacques Lemaire, Mtl	70	1976-77
Serge Savard, Mtl	70	1972-73
Rick Smith, Bos	70	1977-78
Bryan Trottier, NyI	70	1981-82
Bryan Trottier, NyI	70	1983-84
Mike Bossy, NyI	69	1983-84
Rod Langway, Mtl	69	1981-82
Guy Lapointe, Mtl	69	1976-77

Some records will never be broken. Bobby Orr’s plus 124 in 1970-71 is one of them. Only seven players have ever recorded a single season plus total higher than Orr’s average number and one of those was his defense partner.

Memories of Bobby Orr

The following people shared some thoughts on Bobby Orr:

Don Cherry:

"A plus 80? Oh my God, the guy that’ll win it this year will be about plus 40. The second place guy is only a plus 44, you’re kidding? I didn’t know that plus 80 was his average, that’s unbelievable. When he went to Boston the team wasn’t very good or that would’ve been higher."

"When I think of Bobby Orr I think of the complete hockey player. I think of some of the players today who get a lot of points and that’s all they do is get points, they’re like the designated hitter in baseball. Bobby could do it all, Bobby could hit, he could block shots, make plays, get goals and fight. He could do it all."

"The last year he played he scored 46 goals 89 assists and won the scoring championship as a defenseman for the second time. That fall he went to the Canada Cup and was the most valuable player. His skating was phenomenal; he had three speeds: fast, fast and faster. And when you tried to check him he could turn on a dime, it was unbelievable. Bobby Clarke said ‘There should’ve been another league he could’ve gone to, he’s too good for the NHL’. And Serge Savard said ‘There’s players, stars, superstars and then there’s Bobby Orr."

"Red Fisher is the sports writer who covered the Canadiens for the Montreal Gazette, he’s been watching hockey now for about fifty years. I asked him who was the best player. I thought he would say Beliveau or Richard and he said ‘There’s no question, it’s Bobby Orr.’ And he’s seen them all. When we’d have warm ups at the arena all the players would be down at the Boston end watching Bobby Orr. It was like when Ted Williams would take batting practice and all the opposing players would watch him. Bobby used to be at the arena at two in the afternoon for an eight o’clock game, that’s hard to believe but it’s the truth. I remember he used to disappear at about five-thirty all the time. One day I found out where he went when I saw him signing two dozen sticks for the opposing team."

"The greatest goal I ever saw him score was when he was killing a penalty and he was circling around center ice and lost his glove. While skating backward with the puck, he reached down and put his glove on, stickhandling with one hand. Then he went back behind his net and came roaring back up the ice, went though the whole team and shot high to the corner. Goalie Gary "Suitcase" Smith juggled the puck in the air and Bobby reached out while skating behind the net and tapped the puck with his stick out of mid air and into the top corner. He was so shy that after he did that he put his head down. He wouldn’t jump around like they do now; he put his head down because he thought he embarrassed somebody. Both teams stood up on the bench and gave him a standing ovation. He’s the greatest player who ever played and who ever will play. (Don Cherry is the host of Coaches Corner on Hockey Night in Canada and formerly coached the Boston Bruins and Colorado Rockies of the NHL. He is also Bobby Orr’s biggest fan.)"

Brian McFarlane:

"The second year of expansion Bobby scored 21 goals and sixty-four points. Both were NHL records for defenseman at the time. And we marveled that he was able to do this. Lo and behold, three or four years later he was up to 135 points. He led the league in scoring twice as a defenseman, that was never done before and it’s never been done since and that is one truly remarkable achievement! Of course there were the two Conn Smythe trophies, all the Norris trophies. And the fact that he accomplished all these things on knees that had multiple operations is something that I’ll never forget about Bobby Orr, that he could do all this with the stress on his knees. The shame of it all is that his career was cut short so dramatically. Who’s to say how many more records he would have set if he would have played another five, six or eight years if he would have played like they do today on into their late thirties.

The one lasting memory I have of him was Bobby Orr Night at the Boston Garden. The fans cheered so loudly, there was a standing ovation that seemed to go on forever, I think it went on for 26 minutes before they got the crowd settled down to introduce Bobby and to lift his number four to the rafters. That’s one night that stands out in my memory as does Darryl Sittler’s ten-point night and only a very few others in my 26-year career. (Brian McFarlane is a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame, author of over fifty books on hockey and a former broadcaster with Hockey Night in Canada, NBC, ABC and ESPN. His first column for this publication appears elsewhere in this issue.)

Bobby Hull:

"Bobby Orr is the greatest player who ever came down the pike." (Bobby Hull scored 610 career goals in the NHL and is a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame.)

Danny Gare:

"I played my first game against the Boston Bruins and lined up against Bobby Orr, Phil Esposito, Wayne Cashman, Ken Hodge, Don Awrey and Gerry Cheevers. I scored my first goal 18 seconds into the game and thought ‘Holy Cow, maybe I belong in the National Hockey League.’ I remember when I scored my 30th in Boston that year and Bobby was taking the French Connection out to his restaurant and he stopped the elevator and said ‘Danny Gare, congratulations on your 30th goal’ I said thanks Mr. Orr and he said ‘No, I’m Bobby. What are you doing tonight?’ I said well I’m just going back to the hotel. He said ‘No you’re not, you’re coming with us for dinner.’"

"I played with him in the 1976 Canada Cup and he was just one of those guys who embraced people in the sport just wanted to help out any way he could. I was in awe when I played against him and when I watched him when I was a youngster. He was a classy individual." (Danny Gare is a Sabres broadcaster for Empire Sports, the former captain of the Sabres and a former NHL assistant coach.)

Fred Stanfield:

He's the best hockey player I've ever seen, he was so far ahead of everyone else in his hockey sense. He knew what was going to happen before it happened. He helped other players to get better because you had to play better just to keep up with him. In Boston, I played the point with him on the power play and he taught me how the power play should be done. He played to his best in every game he played. A lot of people thought he could only play offense but that plus 80 average proves that he was a great defenseman. (Fred Stanfield played 914 NHL games with Chicago, Boston, Minnesota, and Buffalo and ran the Bruins power play paired with Bobby Orr at the points.)

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